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Starting from number eleven there are five new photographs on…

Starting from number eleven there are five new photographs on the Photo Page.

A few days ago I saw a lonely Wagtail in the garden – quite sad, they’re always in flocks!!
Today we had about 10-12 Fieldfares in the garden, also a couple of Redwings although I didn’t get any good pics of them! Julia

It got a lot warmer here today. Still very cold but in some areas near the buildings we even had a little melting. A lot different than we were told only last night that there was going to be steady snow all day. Pity John Hirst the top man at the Met Office wasn’t told. He was on Sky News this afternoon trying to explain what went wrong with the mild winter that was promised. We didn’t really say that he told us, but our five day forecasts are very reliable. Crap, the five day are nearly the worse after the 24 hour forecast that they change after looking out of the window and realising it is not what they had forecast the night before. I think I told you what our forecaster said to me when I rang the BBC Bristol weather office manned by a Richard Angwin who is employed by the Met Office. I complained that he had forecast a dry day the evening before the the day I had rang and it was pouring down. Had I refreshed the page he asked, as I have changed the forecast in the last hour. Unreal.

We have been feeding the Emu, Rhea and Swans three times a day with the weather being as cold as it is. The extra food will help them generate more body heat. The Birds seem to be a lot more mobile since. They have been a worry. I know that they acclimatise but seeing them sat outside in the cold is a concern when they originate from Australia. The Emu feathers deflect the suns heat so I hope that they are also good protection against the cold. The feathers are also unique. Two feathers branch out from one quill. If I remember I will put a photograph of one on the Photo Page.

Mick asked about the new Lake. Unfortunately it has not been started. I must admit I am getting concerned that it wont be ready for when the Geese return. The Swans wont chase the Geese away, but the Geese if they do try to stay on the Lake may harass the Swans. Black Swans are the only Swans that will live amicably together in the breeding season. The Geese we have had on the Lake are the complete opposite. I maybe wrong and the Geese will take no notice of the Swans.

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Starting from number one there are five new photographs on…

Starting from number one there are five new photographs on the Photo Page.

JUST A FEW FLOWERS PICTURES. LYNNE.

The rain hasn’t helped the workmen doing the Lake. Once again the Met Office got it wrong. For the past four days I have been coping their forecast from their website and also the local weather. I am sure that I don’t need to tell you that over the past four days they got the forecast correct on one day. Yesterday the local forecast on the web was sunshine and cloud. It said the same this morning until about 10am when it told us that we were in for heavy rain. It had already been pouring down for two hours. Despite the rain the stream bed has been levelled and the bottom layer of baskets that will hold the stone are in place.

As long as all goes to plan the new Cob Swan will be collected tomorrow. To save it any stress we will probably let it straight onto the Lake when it gets here. I may just decide to let the resident Swans get use to it for an hour as the top layer of basket for the stone are not going in the Stream until Wednesday. They measure 2m x 1m x 1m large enough for the new Swan to go into for a short period as long as it does not get stressed.

Reading up on Black Swans last night, it told that Black Swan are the only Swans that will live with others amicably during the breeding period. That may just make me decide to keep the two pairs.

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Starting from number one there are five new photographs on…

Starting from number one there are five new photographs on the Photo Page.

Baltimore Oriole in our garden BETTY CANADA

Female ruby throated humming bird in our garden (female doesn’t have the red throat} BETTY CANADA

Red squirrel on our deck BETTY CANADA

?What squirrel on our fence BETTY CANADA

Chickadee in our garden, very small like a bluetit BETTY CANADA

We managed to make hay from the 5 acres that we cut on Wednesday. We got 31 large round bales from the Field. I didn’t think that we were going to make any after have rain on Thursday. We only cut the grass on listening to the forecast on the Wednesday. On the Wednesday evening forecast and even the local forecast on Thursday promised it was going to be dry and sunny until late this afternoon. The Wednesday forecast showed a weather front the the middle of the country, no where near the Southwest. Obviously the Met Office got it wrong for on Thursday it rain on the Farm. In Weston Super Mare it bucketed down. It beggars belief that they cant see rain clouds. You must have seen that the Met Office 1,700 employees, yes 1,700 and they still cant get it right, are going to get a share in a

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There are five new photographs on the Photo page starting…

There are five new photographs on the Photo page starting from number one, sent in by Judy. There is only one day of photographs left.

Close up of a Moth I saw in our shed
Head of the moth
Passion flower in my garden
White Dahlia in my garden
A Red Squirrel taken on SWT2 cam. Judy

I thought that you maybe interested in the reply that we got from the Met Office about a complaint we made two weeks or so back, and our reply.

Thank you for your recent feedback about Met Office weather forecasts for Watchet in Somerset .

We are sorry if you have seen a Met Office forecast that you felt was misleading. We understand that it can be frustrating for people trying to plan activities around the weather, which is why we do always try to get the forecast right.

Met Office forecasts are produced from our computer models. These use data fed in from many thousands of observations as a starting point and run programmes which take various mathematical equations of motion, thermodynamics and state to predict the behaviour of the atmosphere. There is then a process by which forecasters quality check the model’s output before forecasts are issued.

Our forecast model data then feeds into a site specific forecast model which is then run to produce the site specific forecasts for our web site, the BBC weather web pages and others. Our forecast model data, once checked, also forms the basis of the guidance issued by the Chief Forecaster in our Operations Centre and products to all our various customers, including information supplied to the BBC for radio and television forecasts.

Please be assured that our forecasters do work hard to ensure our forecasts are as accurate and consistent as possible. The British Isles experiences some of the most complex weather systems anywhere in the world and any forecast issued will always the best possible from the information available. We strive for 100% accuracy but there will be times when we do not get the local detail absolutely correct.

Although the computer models are vastly improved compared with even a few years ago, there may be small errors which are magnified over time, for example the timing or position of any low pressure area or weather front passing which can make quite a difference to the forecast for a particular locality.

Over recent years we believe we have made great strides in improving the accuracy of our forecasts and I can assure you we are constantly working to improve this. A number of initiatives are being worked on such as recent improvements in the computerised forecast models. Feedback from customers such as yourself is invaluable in bringing potential problems to our attention. Planned upgrades to our supercomputing capacity, due to become operational in the next few years, will allow higher resolution models to be run which will provide even greater improvements in local detail and guidance. Clearly we will be expected to provide more accurate, targeted and localised forecasts in the ye! ars to come and this is where our efforts should and will be directed.

Regarding your query about more detaiIed forecasts for the specialist farmer, I wonder if our Talk To A Forecaster service might potentially be of benefit to you? This is a consultancy service where you can talk directly to a forecaster in our Operations Centre to request weather information for any land area in the UK the next few hours or for up to five days ahead. There are more details of this service on our web site at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/talkfc/. However, we recognise that a paid consultancy service may not be appropriate for all c! ustomers. We do also offer a telephone service called Weathercall where you can obtain a five day forecast for locations within the UK via telephone, fax, web download or SMS. There is more information about this service at http://www.weathercall.co.uk/ .

In summary, we are sorry if you have been disappointed with forecasts on some occasions. I hope the above at least reassures you that we aim to address concerns about forecast accuracy. Thank you once again for your valuable feedback, which will help us improve our services in the future, and for taking the time to contact the Met Office.

Yours sincerely, Martin Kidds Customer Feedback Manager

Dear Martin,

Our location is Taunton not Watchet, fourteen miles difference, quite obviously the correct information was not passed on, unless of course you have emailed the wrong complainant.

I did not feel that the forecast was misleading, it was. Bad weather forecasting is not frustrating, it is annoying and causes unnecessary problems. I can not for the life of me understand that you always try to get the forecast right. Surely the equipment at your disposal try does not come in to it. My complaint was of a forecast given at 10.pm that was completely opposite ten hours later.

I have found your forecasting to be in the region of 25% wrong. Since my initial complaint some two to three weeks back it would be more than 30%. So it is not unreasonable to suggest that forecasts produced from your computer models. data fed in from many thousands of observations various mathematical equations of motion, thermodynamics and state to predict the behavior of the atmosphere are clearly not working.

Frankly I do not care where your model data is fed, finishes at, and to whom, to go out where. I only asked for an explanation why the forecast I received was wrong just twelve hours later.

I would not suggest for one moment that you do not try to get your forecasting right, unfortunately for all who use it you do not. If the British Isles weather forecasting is so complex and challenging for the Met Office, stop forecasting.

I have not seen any improvement in your forecasting over recent years. Three or four years ago I complained as I had 15 acres of hay ruined because of your forecasting, it most defiantly it has not improved since then.

As for your Talk to a Forecaster service. If they are that good why is it not being used for all forecasting, especially as the Met Office is taxpayer funded.

Your email has not answered my complaint of why you got a forecast completely wrong twelve hours after it was given. I am going to try this service www.weather.weatherbug.co.uk unless you tell me that the Met office supply their information.

Regards

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There are five photographs on the Photo page starting from…

There are five photographs on the Photo page starting from number eleven, sent in by Jill.

Norfolk Lavender – across the road from where my parents lived for many years

Autumn reflections – a pond in my forest

Swans preening on the river behind my office

Sunset on Skomer Island

Another pic of the field of marigolds in Kent with church in background and meadow cranesbill in foreground. Jill.

Cutting the grass to make the hay has definitely brought the Buzzard and Owls to the Valley. Last night the Owl was on the pole a couple of times, and the Buzzard on and off for most of the day. With the grass cut it makes it easier for the Voles to be seen by both the Owls and Buzzard. With a bit of luck both will start hunting the Valley for a lot of their food. There are also a lot of Rabbits in the Valley. The new cameras digital zoom makes it easier to get close up to the Birds and to get better images. I am still getting use to the new cameras control as you have probably noticed. I also will need to get some more infra red lamps placed so that most of the valley can be viewed. I will keep an eye out for the Buzzards soaring above the Valley, if I see any I will try to follow them on the camera.

The weather forecast seems to be letting us down again. It promised a lot warmer weather with a bit of cloud and wind. Lots of cloud, little wind and chilly. Tomorrows forecast is now a bit different from what they said last night. I can see that we are not going top make our hay before the rain that is promised for Friday. I know I keep on about it, but the Met Office is a sad excuse, in any other business there would be many heads rolling with the times that they get things wrong. A couple of weeks ago we were told that we would be able to get forecasts for months ahead. They are unable to get the next 24 hours correct, so how they will manage months ahead I really don’t know. Some years ago we had forecast for long periods ahead. It fizzled out very soon after it started.

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Elsie if you like the Sheep that much how many…

Elsie, if you like the Sheep that much, how many do you want? We are going to keep a few, not sure which one yet. It is a difficult decision. It would be nice to keep the Portlands as they are a rare breed and they normally only have one lamb and most of them have not escaped. The Texals and Cross Bred were hand reared by a Child whose Father was once the Curator at Cricket St Thomas, they are very friendly but they have escaped, although if I shake a feed bag they will come back. Mind you as they will not be going for slaughter, they could be here for a good while, with the Foot and Mouth restrictions that are in force.

I am pleased that some of you saw the Kingfisher this afternoon. I hadn’t seen it for over a week, and was beginning to think that it had moved away from the lake. There are not as many Birds using the feeders either. I have not seen a Greater Spotted Woodpecker for getting on for six weeks, we see and hear the Green Woodpecker every day, but they don’t use the feeders. I did see one earlier in the year on one of the feeders, but that was only once. This time of year there is a lot of seed and berries about for the Bird. Earlier in the year I thought that there were not going to be any Blackberries, they flowered very early without any fruit forming. I got that one wrong, there are now plenty of fruit on the bushes.

There are no Squirrel using the feeders at all, we can see them in the trees taking all the Hazel Nuts. With the amount that were on the trees, we thought that we may have have got some this year, but the Squirrels seem to have had most of them, even before they have ripened. Most years we do manage to get Walnuts. As soon as there is a windy day you can be sure that there will be lots on the ground to pick up. By the look of it the Squirrels have had them this year, as we haven’t really had any windy days, the walnuts are falling from the trees slowly giving the Squirrels time to hide them away. We also get a lot of Chestnuts on the farm, but in all time we have been at Denbury we have never had any that were worth eating. To get to the nut is a painful experience, more so when they are so small that you could do nothing with them.

I am getting very annoyed with the unreliable weather forecasts, It is absolutely tipping it down here tonight. The forecast was maybe a shower. Because of the forecast we left Breeze without a rug, if it continues as hard as it is we will have to get her in. It would be interesting, if a few of you may try out an experiment, to see how reliable the forecasts are over the Country. It would be interesting if a number of you could from tomorrow, for about two weeks write down what weather was forecast for your areas including my area, either from the forecast on the BBC TV, or the Internet from the BBC or Met Office websites, some sites you can also put your postcodes in. Although don’t put your postcode on the forum , just your area. The following night let us know what the forecast was, and how accurate it was. If it proves that the forecast are unreliable, I will ask the BBC and the Met Office for their comments.

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As much as I do not like taking chances with…

As much as I do not like taking chances with the making of our hay, I don’t think that this year I have much of a choice. The forecast was rain today, but it has stayed dry. It has been dry since last Thursday afternoon, if the weather forecast hadn’t said that we would have had showers, we would have nearly had made our hay by now. What do they pay these people for. Many occupations rely on accurate weather forecasting. We really don’t get it.

We need five or six days to make hay. Checking on the forecast, other than Friday, from tomorrow we have a window of about ten days of no rain or showers. On that forecast we should be alright.

I was speaking to a person from the WWT today about the Kingfisher. I don’t know to much about them. By all accounts they migrate, not very far, maybe to the warmer parts of France and Spain, now and then as far as the Mediterranean. I must admit that I am surprised. You would think that at the speed that the Kingfisher fly they would be unable to travel that far. Crossing the channel seems a very long way. The good new is that they will return next year.

When speaking to the person from the WWT he suggested that with the soil that we have at Denbury, that we should be getting Sand Martins nest here. We could well have them although I have never seen any. Mind you I haven’t been looking for them. I will find out a bit more about them, but I do have a bank that would make an ideal site, that I could try to encourage them to use, in nesting.

I not sure if any of you saw the flock of Geese that landed on the lake about a week ago. I forgot to mention it when I saw them. I counted twenty three. They were swimming around the back of the island, so there is a good chance that I missed a few. What reminded me was that as I was walking around the lake this afternoon, I heard a flock hooting, as they were getting nearer to the lake, The flock flew in as if they were going to land on the lake, but at the last moment, as they were coming in, they changed direction and flew away. I can only think that it was seeing me that made them change their mind. It would have been nice if they had landed and had stayed on the lake for a while.